On December 8 2009, I wrote this and the reaction was laughter. Almost no one thought Scott could win.
So what has changed between the time that was written and today? How important was Brown’s campaign structure? Howie Carr’s on-air support? Blogs and talk radio?
Let’s hear from you below.
First, the flashback:
Memo To Scott Brown: Don’t Make Capuano’s Mistakes
by Brian Maloney, December 8th, 2009 at 11:30pm
With the results in, it’s already clear that Michael Capuano blew an enormous opportunity to win the Democratic nomination by failing to go negative against Martha Coakley (for fear of a backlash) and draw a clear distinction on the issues.
Now, Republican nominee Scott Brown has just six weeks to learn from Capuano’s mistakes and take a wildly different approach.
Think Brown can’t win? Here’s why he can:
— With local media outlets already declaring Coakley our next senator, Martha’s infamous coasting will become even more pronounced. She will put next to nothing into her effort from here, saving campaign funds for future purposes.
— Since Coakley’s supporters now assume the race is over, they will do little campaigning over the holidays.
— Given that backdrop, turnout on January 19 will be even lower than today’s. We could be well into single digits across the Commonwealth. Motivating your base, even one as small as the GOP’s, makes it possible to overcome that.
— At the national level, Democrats are busy alienating almost every group, from the far-left to moderates, which further depresses turnout as supporters become disillusioned.
— Oddly enough, the one media outlet seeing a potential victory path for Brown, if remote, is the New York Times:
About 37 percent of the state’s 4.1 million registered voters are Democrats, and about 11 percent are Republicans, giving Ms. Coakley an advantage over Mr. Brown in the general election. Although Massachusetts has elected three Republican governors since 1990, it has not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years.
Mr. Brown, 50, is a lawyer and a lieutenant colonel in the Massachusetts National Guard who has served in the state Legislature since 1996. He opposes same-sex marriage and the health care legislation being debated in Congress, and supports President Obama’s decision to send more troops to Afghanistan.
Winning unaffiliated voter, who make up half of the state’s electorate, will be crucial for Mr. Brown. He has touted his ability to work across party lines, while casting himself as the only candidate with conservative values.
Since almost no one believes Brown can win, what does he have to lose? Why not put the pedal to the floor and see what happens?
Here’s what he must do next:
— Make it clear: this is about the economy, jobs, and taxes. These are winnable positions for Republicans. Set the agenda, it’s not difficult, as Martha’s sole “issue” is her gender.
— Muzzle Howie Carr’s defeatist attitude. Hey Howie, why not help, rather than hinder Brown’s efforts? I cringe every time I hear Howie say that Scott’s only in the race to get his name out there so he can run for AG or another statewide office. Even if true, why say that on the air?
— ABSOLUTELY go after Coakley EVERY SINGLE DAY. Make her life miserable for the next six weeks, that’s what campaigning is all about. And she most certainly deserves it! There’s no reason she should have a free ride simply because that pleases Margery Eagan and the others who failed to nominate Hillary Clinton in 2008.
There’s plenty of ammo out there on Coakley, use it. When Eagan and the Globies are writing angry columns in response, you’ll know you’ve done your job correctly.
— INSIST on a series of debates and scream bloody murder if she refuses. Local media outlets have held debates without Republicans to this point, why should that continue?
— IMMEDIATELY begin a major push for out-of-state contributions. Coakley’s been doing this all along, why shouldn’t the opposition?
— Put together some money and hammer her with ads! Utilize talk radio and finally, let’s see some mailers.
There is no reason whatsoever for Scott Brown to play it safe for the next six weeks. Playing nice or accepting a token opposition candidate role is unacceptable and will only make the margin wider. Worse, a weak result from that kind of misguided strategy will make running for other positions down the road more difficult than ever.
But even a fairly close race would show that Republicans are once again viable in Massachusetts. The New York Times is right: those unaffiliated voters (who stayed home today) are up for grabs. Rile them up.
Bottom line: nice = big loss, while aggressive campaigning is a game-changer.
Congratulations to Howie Carr on his appointment as permanent guest host on the Scott Brown radio show.
Does this mean “Marsha” Coakly has more time to devote to not prosecuting crooked pols??? Tiny Tommy Taxes Finneran and Mumbles Menino better watch out ,nothing worse than a “woman” scourned.
Brown played nice and won by about the same margin that Obama did. Coakley took time off only a couple of weeks ago and then went negative, both of which seemed to be game-changers.
Tonight on WTKK Michele McPhee did her show from F1, I think, and it was basically a Brown victory party.
Now, I had no prob with the results myself but whoa, it was like a rock concert, party, or a sporting
event (SCOTT BROWN HAS WON THE WORLD SERIES!). McPhee was definitely in an up mood, and no surprise there, but if you were expecting down-to-earth election returns…ah, no.
“MICHAEL GRAHAM IS IN THE HOUSE!” (big cheer from crowd) etc.
Well, I went back and forth between that and the more conservative (in demeanor certainly) Avi Nelson on
WRKO (and some Dan Rea on WBZ, and even some WBUR). But even if you were a Brownie, Michele’s
screaming, screeching voice was a bit too much!
She did kinda rub it in with colleague Margery Eagan but she said hey, they differ politically but they’re
still friends, etc.
Supposedly the first media outlet to be told (by Brown) that Coakley had conceded was WRKO/Avi Nelson.
He then went on WTKK
(Meanwhile a post on radio-info.com says Santos on WWZN was totally unprofessional;
he had a doctor on and freaked out when the doc said she was voting for Brown. Brown told her not to vote at all and then said the woman was no longer welcome on the station)
Well, I am not one to go digging but didn’t a couple of bloggers here get just as cocky as Coakley about a month ago?
Anti-Brian where are you?
Flipping channels I was surprised to see only NECN and Ch5 had continuous coverage as the results were coming in. When7 and 4 steppid in the race had been decided. The cable networks proved how out of touch they can be covering local stories… NECN did a great job. Braude provided solid insight and analysis. Maybe Maggie acts as his psychic vampire and drives him to silliness on the radio. I saw David Andelman on the stage for Brown’s acceptance speech. Because of his support of the good guy I promise to hold my nose and listen and watch all of the Andelmans’ shows …The state and the country are better off this morning with Scott’s election.
SaveWRKO deserves credit for excellent coverage of this election. I’ve been a Brian critic when it’s called for but this time sincere praise is in order. This blog is a great public service.
I’m not surprised to hear Howie say some of the STUPIDEST things. I think his nuts are missing when he says those kinds of things on the air/in print.
I’m not surprised to hear Howie say some of the STUPIDEST things. I think his nuts are missing when he says those kinds of things on the air/in print.
Good call, Brian. You saw this victory was possible when others laughed.
Oops I meant Santos told her not to vote…
I work nights at a post office and the tv in the break room had…CNN. We are unable to change it
At the start of the election, I too, didn’t think Brown had a chance. I didn’t pounce on him, and actually gave him credit starting w/that brilliant JFK black & white ad.
He ran a better campaign than Martha, and Martha’s substantial lead over Brown (30 odd points) resulted in her running campaign that was complacent. At the end, as a last ditch effort to stop Brown, the Coakley campaign turned negative and a bit nasty. That’s nothing new in politics, but she shouldn’t have needed to resort to that if her campaign was run better.
In addition, there is a overall disgust in the Dems here in MA (and with the Speakers we’ve had, the disgust is well founded), that, along w/the state’s unemployment and the health care bill all contributed to voters coming out and supporting Brown.
I’m a Coakley supporter, and did volunteer for her campaign prior to the primary. I’m disappointed, yes, but I am really happy that voters got involved and made it to the polls. This is a victory for democracy, and even though my candidate didn’t win, I have nothing bad to say about Brown.
Others here can gloat if you must, but you needn’t have to. You won. Congratulations and I hope Brown does a good job for our state. I didn’t bash him before the election and have no intention of doing it now.
One of our senators in Maine feels that her job as a US senator is to stand up for all people in America, not just those in Maine. I hope Brown feels the same-he had people across the country collectively holding their breath. I wish him the best.
I think Scott really did go after Martha, but in a calculated manner: mostly positive TV spots which BUILT THE CASE for Scott. But he slammed her in press releases and during some of the debates.
Scott’s campaign was extremely aggressive, but carefully crafted. A model for the future.
Martha never made a positive case for herself, it was pure negative campaigning. Successful efforts use both as part of the overall strategy.
Where I was off was in turnout, which was relatively high. But in a million years I never would have guessed high turnout in Mass could benefit a Republican. You can re-write the textbook with that.
Also, Howie Carr deserves credit as it was at this point (December 8) when he began to go full-throttle for Brown. He made a major difference. Talk radio overall was a big factor.
Mean to say December 8, don’t know how that became a happy face in the above comment.
But a fitting happy face it is nonetheless.
toby – I agree regarding gloating: it’s childish and unnecessary.
Coakley may have had the worst candidacy I’ve ever seen. In defeat, politicians are often more candid, more honest and at times even more likeable (see Shannon O’Brien). Coakley, however, was her same do-nothing, say-nothing cardboard cutout self that she’s always been. She inspired nothing and lost because of it. I hope this is the end of her career, as I’m not sure how she could make a comeback after such a staggering defeat.
Also, despite Coakley comically trying to portray Brown as some extreme right-wing idealogue, he’s actually a pretty liberal guy socially. I hope his election starts a trend – laissez faire on social issue (let the gays marry, leave Roe v. Wade alone, etc), and conservative on fiscal issues. I doubt it as that wouldn’t fly so well down south, but I can dream, right?
ladyjane: I’m assuming you’re talking about Sen. Snowe? All US Senators are required to uphold the Constitution and represent their state. That is their job and that’s what voters expect. And that is Senator Brown’s job.
Snowe (R) is a social liberal and voted for Obama’s healthcare and had supported him in financial recovery and TARP funding.
I applaud her for it, however are you suggesting Sen. Brown do the same? Because you seem to be against what Sen. Snowe supports, however you give her credit for it? Sounds like you expect Brown to tow the GOP line- for the whole country.
Naturally what you’ve posted makes no sense.
Hoss- Yes, I hope the same…..let the social issues go and focus on financial matters and fiscal issues facing our state.
We desperately need jobs here, and I’d like to see how Brown can work to entice new technology and/or opportunities here in MA.
Frankly unless the health care bill offers a strong public option, it will not be beneficial to us here in MA. We already have what the other 49 states don’t. I’d love to see universal health care, and can see health care reform is sorely needed, but it is getting so bogged down- to the detriment of other issues.
More budget cuts at Entercom; sports flash guy/ Big Show regular Pete Sheppard is gone after about 14 years at the highly rated show/station.
He will be replaced by Metro-Shadow people.
Wonder if he will go to CBS’ WBZ-FM
Hey Brian: you obsess over Stephanie Miller and the Mooks’s jokes about The Airhead’s career as a nude model. Of course SM’s show is a combination of humor and political commentary (or as she calls it “a Mensa meeting with fart jokes”; no wonder you don’t get it). But today, Glen Beck went completly gonzo over The Airhead’s nude photo and his subsequent pimping of his daughters, even suggesting that TA should be put under house arrest lest a dead intern show up somewhere! When Beck’s show starts airing in Boston, you’ll have no choice but to justify every crazy thing he says, so why not start now?
I’ve been slamming Glenn for years, I certainly won’t stop now.
Hey…where’s big mouth LIBERAL AntiBrian’s comments???? Nothing stupid to say today, Anti?
Face it…you’re wrong. You backed a loser.
And Glavin…you’re almost as WRONG!!
Sucks to be a liberal in Massachusetts and know that MOST PEOPLE don’t agree with your dumbass point of view!
The color-coded map of the former “Commonwealth” of Massachusetts, (now “Wealth More and More Concentrated In Fewer Hands As Jobs Move To China”…if you can read, read Gordon Laird’s “The Price of a Bargain”) was printed in the Boston Globe and the Chicopee Herald. Those areas of the state out of reach of the WRKO-AM/WTKKK-FM hate spewers went for the Democratic Party standard-bearer. (Yes, I know one WRKO hate-spewer is syndicated in Springfield, but that particular station, WHYN-AM 560, has one of the most monstrously directional antennas anywhere with a cascade of nulls, it fades out in minutes when you head west on the Pike).
Bob – weren’t you only recently calling Scott Brown a “baby killer”? Do us all a favor: find a knife and run into it. kthxby
Here’s my new post on Glenn Beck’s anti-Brown rant:
http://radioequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/01/mark-levin-responds-to-glenn-becks.html
I voted for Brown but his post-victory notification on TV and radio to everybody of his daughters’ “availability” was indeed awkward, to say the least. Regardless, I am ecstatic that Coakley lost.
The tyranny of one-half of Massachusetts’ U.S. Senatorial representation being “served” for 47 years by Mary Jo Kopechne’s killer is finally over. It took the death of the waitress sandwich maker and Martha Coakley’s insincerity, incompetence, and corruption for it to occur, along with Brown tirelessly being willing to talk to people face-to-face statewide campaigning but, the Ted Kennedy stranglehold is finally over.
I wonder if Brown’s victory means Mihos’ odds of being elected MA Gov are better than Charlie Faker’s. I say that because, like Brown, Mihos is probably willing to talk to real voters face-to-face with tireless statewide campaigning. I sense that, like Coakley, Charlie Faker thinks that’s below him and is unwilling campaign that way, regardless of its potential effectiveness. Besides supposedly raising a ton of $, how the fu_k did Charlie Faker suddenly gain so much notoriety as a gubernatorial candidate?
AntiBrian hasn’t said anything since I called him out about his comment about Brown never serving overseas in his 30 yr Nat’l Guard service. I aked him if he ever served any of his military time going overseas. I love it when those people who ask questions like that NEVER have served a day in the Service! Pirate, you and I have a had some fun go-arounds but you have been nothing but fair, wrong but fair!
Hey Laurence…don’t get too comfortable with the fact that a good portion of the towns in Western Mass. were won by Coakley. Look at the percentages…the margins on many of them were closer than the statewide result (52/47). Coakley won many of them, but just barely. Those are purple towns, not blue.
Given the White House’s reaction to the win (We need to be MORE liberal!), those purple towns will probably turn red by November.
One of my favorite memories from Tuesday night was the look on Deval Patrick’s face as he stood behind the woman Patches K. calls Marcia Coakley. It was a mix of helplessness and panic behind a false smile, because compared to him Martha is Miss Popularity. Can’t wait until November to give Deval his walking papers.
Medic: Thank you. A compliment for fairness means more to me than any other compliment.
I’m relieved this election is over. I can’t imagine how stressed the families and campaign officials must have felt.
I need a break myself. It has nothing to do w/Brown’s win, just finding blogging is becoming stressful. When I can have fun with it again, then I’ll join in.
Best- pirate
Sheppard was fired at the exact moment nobody would pay attention. Slick move Entercom. Slick.
Congrats Brian you called it. Now back to what I enjoy most about this site. Your great observations about Boston Radio. I saw that Pete Sheppard was fired from WEEI. “Entercom Happens!”. They say it was a cost cutting move but I’m wondering if it was more about trying to change the image of the station (Pete “The Meat” Sheppard was a “meathead”, his opinions and reactions/temper were on the level of a homer in a grammar school yard) in that the “other” sports station is possibly starting to do damage to these guys? Looking forward to the next ratings book. WTKK also hitched its wagon to the Scott Brown horse. Let’s see if it brought their ratings up from 14 to 12 or 11. if not, I can’t see these guys lasting much longer.
Couldn’t the “wealthy people voted for the evil Republican, who will cut their taxes” argument be flipped by saying “only the poor people voted the sniveling Democrat, who will give them more welfare?”
There are two sides to every coin. Also, check out the turnout in the Coakley-won cities and towns. Pretty low…
The Globe website has the election results map and the actual tally by town. It makes interesting reading. Many Congressmen are sweating already. Delahunt’s coziness with Fidel and Hugo Chavez will not stand the scrutiny of an election. His district voted overwhelmingly for Scott and with high turnout.
Laurence, one of the angry white women on another of my boards said that Coakley did better in that area because there are no Irish Catholics. She sadi Irish Catholics will not vote for a woman.
So when you “that caused the Coakley loss, please let us know.
boy, where is the edit feature when you need it? Even I don’t understand my post!
Cricket: tell your one angry white “women” that Chicopee DOES have a large Catholic population.
Couldn’t possibly be that 10% of the residents of Chicopee (2nd largest city in western MA) are living below the poverty level and don’t see what Brown can do for them. Let me repeat – 10% of the population is living below the poverty level.
Ask your “source” who “sadi” Irish Catholics will not vote for a woman where she came up with that crock. How does this “sage” explain the cities and towns populated w/many Irish Catholics voting Coakley? Huh? Didja even think of that? I’ll get you a list of them- that info. is very easy to come by.
I don’t know what your last sentence means….as usual, it makes no sense.
I try to stay away, but when I read posts like this, I get pulled back in.
scott brown will do exactly what mitch mcconnell will tell him to do.,,,,,,,,,,,so much for independance…………..lol.