An incredibly busy weekend for campaign-related developments continues, this time with eagerly-anticipated results of the Public Policy Polling survey that is the first to show Republican Scott Brown with a lead over Democrat Martha Coakley for the open US Senate seat.
Bloggers are jumping on the news, which adds to recent momentum strongly in Brown’s favor.
As PPP has a relatively good track record in political polling, the results are seen as credible. But Brown’s one-point lead makes the race a virtual tie when the margin of error is considered:
Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47.
Here are the major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs:
-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.
-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.
-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.
-In a trend that’s going to cause Democrats trouble all year, voters disgusted with both parties are planning to vote for the one out of power. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Brown’s standing is that only 21% of Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of Congressional Republicans…but at the same time only 33% view Congressional Democrats favorably. And among voters who have a negative take on both parties, who account for more than 20% of the electorate, Brown leads 74-21.
-Because he’s basically been untouched so far, Brown’s favorability spread is a remarkable +32, at 57/25. For some perspective on how good those numbers are, Bob McDonnell was at a +20 spread with Virginia voters in our final poll there before going on to a 17 point victory.
PPP also includes constructive advice for Coakley, should she choose to turn the race around in her favor, but time is running out. At this point, her party’s best hope will be a last-minute smear campaign against Brown, most likely utilizing the Boston Globe or other area media outlets. Count on desperate Democrats to go this route.
ELSEWHERE: William Jacobson recounts his day spent at Scott Brown’s campaign headquarters.
NEXT: we await results of the Herald and Globie polls. Early word has the Herald portraying this as a horse race, while the Globies show Coakley with a comfortable lead. The latter survey would actually help Brown’s cause if it lulls panicked Dems back into a sense of complacency.
The 11th hour smear campaign led by the Globe has already begun. Not that it’s a smear, but the Globe ran a huge top-of-the-fold, front-page poll today showing Coakley up 15. What a shock.
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