Wrong Strategy For Brown’s Supporters?

*** UPDATE: WTKK SENATE DEBATE UNDERWAY – POST YOUR REACTIONS BELOW ***

A number of well-meaning Scott Brown supporters have been led to believe that in-state polling is key to waking up sleepy Beltway GOP leaders who’ve so far missed what is clearly a much closer US Senate race than outsiders realize.

To that end, they’ve pushed for polling, even collecting donations to fund such an effort. And there is additional excitement over an expected Rasmussen Poll that was supposedly conducted in the Bay State last night.

One survey has already been released by the Weekly Standard, which apparently sponsored it. Their effort shows Brown behind Democrat Martha Coakley by just 11 points, reduced to mere single digits when counting only likely voters on January 19.

Unfortunately, polling is the wrong way to back Brown, for these reasons:

— No pollster in his right mind would release results showing a Republican ahead in Massachusetts, even if the data supported it. They’d redo the survey for the sake of political credibility.

— If Brown is catching up with Coakley, it isn’t something you’d want plastered all over the news, because it could increase Democratic votes. Low turnout is key to any Brown victory (and I DO mean low).

— Any money diverted toward polling would be better spent making sure his clever spots actually reach the airwaves.

Meanwhile, at National Review Online’s Campaign Spot, Jim Geraghty believes primary results show Brown probably doesn’t have a chance, but he’s missing a key point: Dem turnout was higher proportionally due to a hotly-contested, four-way race. That was not the case on the GOP ballot, where Scott had no real competition.

In addition, unenrolled voters, who make up a majority in the Bay State, will be up for grabs. Beltway coverage of Massachusetts politics almost always overlooks the huge percentage of independent voters here.

In further analysis, Geraghty publishes a note from a reader who sees Plymouth County as key to a Brown victory, but wonders how voters there could be motivated to visit polling places. Missing here is the fact that a very unpopular meals tax increase is also on the ballot in the town of Plymouth.

It was passed during fishy Town Meeting proceedings by just three votes. Small business owners there are rabidly opposing the tax hike, fighting it tooth and nail. This could help Brown in a key stronghold as voters turn out in greater numbers to repeal it.